In 2024, US merchandise trade totaled $5.33 trillion, up 4.6% over 2023 and the largest amount in history. Exports totaled $2.07 trillion, up 2.3% and just $1.27 billion below the all-time record set in 2022. Imports rose 6.1% to a new high of $3.27 trillion. That left a $1.20 trillion deficit with the world, the largest ever.
Where did it come from, and where did it go? Trade with Asia comprised 36.7% of the two-way total, up from 35.9% in 2023 but still below the 1985-2019 average of 37%. The European Union held an 18.3% share, two points higher than the pre-COVID average. Canada’s 14.3% was down from the earlier 17.6% share, but Mexico’s 15.8% portion was up from a 12% average.
Sales abroad
In 2024, 29.1% of overseas shipments went to Asia, as compared to 30.3% in the 2010-19 decade. The table below shows destination values and trends. Note that share data below Asia are percent of shipments to Asia.
Destination _ _ _ $ value 2024 _ _ % YoY _ _ 2024 Share _ _ 2010-19 Share
E.U. __ _ _ _ _ _ _ $370.2 bn_ _ _ +0.7%_ _ _ _17.9% _ _ _ _ _ _18.2%
Canada _ _ _ _ _ _ $349.4 bn_ _ _ -1.4%_ _ _ _ 16.9% _ _ _ _ _ _18.7%
Mexico _ _ _ _ _ _ $334.0 bn_ _ _ +3.5%_ _ _ _16.2% _ _ _ _ _ _14.9%
Asia _ _ _ _ _ _ _ $600.3 bn_ _ _ +4.0%_ _ _ _29.1% _ _ _ _ _ _30.3%
Of Asia –
China _ _ _ _ _ _ $143.5 bn_ _ _ _ -2.9%_ _ _ _ 23.9%_ _ _ _ _24.6%
Japan _ _ _ _ _ _ _$79.7 bn _ _ _ _+5.4% _ _ _ _ 13.3% _ _ _ _ _14.5%
NICs _ _ _ _ _ _ _ $182.1 bn_ _ _ _ +3.6%_ _ _ _ 29.1% _ _ _ _ _30.3%
ASEAN _ _ _ _ _ _$124.6 bn _ _ _ +16.5%_ _ _ _20.8%_ _ _ _ _16.8%
The first thing that becomes clear is that sales to Asia are nearly twice as important as those to either Europe or our American neighbors. The second point is that shipments to ASEAN are roaring ahead faster than to other destinations in our analysis, and that exports to China are lagging.
From whence it came
On the import side, things are shifting around a bit more. To put it in perspective, Asia’s share is nearly double that of the EU, and close to three times Canada’s slice of the pie. But, with Asia, the shift away from traditional bogeymen in Japan and China are redefining America’s trade with the region.
ASEAN – the near-free trade zone in Southeast Asia – is taking huge chunks (10 percentage points) away from the rest of the region, with Vietnam leading the charge.
Source _ _ _ _ _ $ value 2024 _ _ % YoY _ _ 2024 Share _ _ 2010-19 Share
E.U. __ _ _ _ _ _ _ $605.8 bn_ _ _ _ +5.1%_ _ _ _18.5% _ _ _ _ _ _18.2%
Canada _ _ _ _ _ _ $412.7 bn_ _ _ _ -1.4%_ _ _ _ 12.6% _ _ _ _ _ _13.6%
Mexico _ _ _ _ _ _ $505.9 bn_ _ _ _+6.4%_ _ _ _15.5% _ _ _ _ _ _12.9%
Asia _ _ _ _ _ _ $1,356.9 bn_ _ _ _ +8.2%_ _ _ _41.5% _ _ _ _ _ _43.3%
Of Asia –
China _ _ _ _ _ _ $438.9 bn_ _ _ _ +2.8%_ _ _ _32.3%_ _ _ __ _45.9%
Japan _ _ _ _ _ _ $148.2 bn _ _ _ _+0.7% _ _ _ _ 10.9% _ _ _ _ _ _13.7%
NICs _ _ _ _ _ _ $297.1 bn_ _ _ _+19.3%_ _ _ _21.9% _ _ _ __ _13.5%
ASEAN _ _ _ _ _$352.3 bn _ _ _ +13.3%_ _ _ _ _26.0% _ _ _ __ _15.0%
What does it all mean? First, moving purchases from Japan or China to Vietnam does not cost a single American job. Second, it is almost certainly leading to lower costs to American consumers and businesses, because otherwise, why move away from an established export base? (Bear in mind that many of the companies manufacturing in Asia for export to the USA are in fact American companies.) Third, those lower price points directly benefit the profits of businesses and standards of living of those in the United States.
Final thought. A 10% import duty on everything purchase from China would be the same as imposing a new $43.9 billion tax. Not smart.
