by Calculated Risk on 2/24/2025 10:51:00 AM
Earlier, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on January existing home sales, NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January, I mentioned that the median price typically bottoms seasonally in January (contracts signed mostly in November and December) and peaks in June (April and May contracts).
Below is a table of the seasonal changes from January to June (all median prices Not Seasonally Adjusted, NSA).
Note: In 2020, prices increased late into the year and peaked in October, but prices peaked in June for all the other years.
| Change in Median House Price from January to June | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
| January to June | 13.7% | 14.4% | 10.6% | 20.8% | 16.8% | 12.8% |
The NAR reported the median price was $396,900 in January 2025, down 7.0% from $426,900 in June 2024.
We should expect the median price to increase seasonally over the next 5 months, but only slightly in February.
