The Other Deficit – David O’Rear’s East Asia Politics & Economics Blog


Last year, America’s exports of goods and services rose 3.9% under the Balance of Payments definition while imports were up 6%. Goods – merchandise, durables, or “things you can drop on your foot” – comprise two-thirds of exports and about 80% of imports. As a result, the physical goods deficit rose 14.1%, to a record $1,213 billion. The surplus on services (“invisibles” or non-durables) rose 6%, to $295.2 billion. That figure was about $5 billion below the 2018 record.

The current-account balance includes both goods and services, as well as income items such as transfers from individuals or companies across international borders. That figure has been in deficit for all but one year (1992) since 1982. In 2024, it was a record $1,133.6 billion.

The size of the current-account imbalance matters, primarily as it compares to nominal GDP. Last year, GDP was $29.2 trillion, which means the deficit was 3.9% of GDP, a high but not alarming figure. For comparison, the average over the past five years was 3.5%, in the decade before that 2.3%, and before that (2000-09) it was 4.4%.

Author: David O’Rear

Asia-oriented professional macro-economist, political analyst and policy adviser for over 35 years.
View all posts by David O’Rear




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