- The Bitcoin sell-side ratio and moving averages hint at a possible market rally.
- The adjusted spent output profit ratio (aSOPR) shows that long-term traders are selling at a loss.
Bitcoin [BTC] has maintained relatively stable performance over the last 24 hours, dropping slightly by 0.84%, showing clear signs of exhaustion in the market.
Several indicators now suggest that a rally is near and in motion, with Bitcoin potentially extending its move further.
Has Bitcoin bottomed yet?
One critical metric aligning with the bullish narrative is the sell-side ratio. This ratio compares investor spending within a specific period to the realized market capitalization.
Historically, when this level drops to the 0.1% region or below, it often signals the start of a major price rally. Currently, the sell-side ratio is at 0.086%, implying that Bitcoin could resume its rally soon.
Source: Glassnode
Adding to this bullish outlook is the adjusted spent output profit ratio (aSOPR), which recently crossed below 1, with a reading of 0.99—indicating that traders are selling at a loss.
Selling at a loss often forces the market upward as Bitcoin is accumulated at a discount.
While these indicators remain bullish and suggest a rally could be near, AMBCrypto’s analysis shows that traders may be waiting for the optimal buying opportunity.
The Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) momentum (70-day) indicator helps determine this prime opportunity. A major price run typically begins when the MVRV crosses above its 70-day moving average.
Source: Glassnode
If this happens, Bitcoin could start making higher highs, increasing its overall monthly gain, currently at 4.32%, according to CoinMarketCap.
Market activity remains low
Market activity remains subdued, with fewer transactions occurring, indicating a lack of momentum to push Bitcoin forward.
At the time of writing, the amount of BTC being transferred has dropped significantly, currently at approximately 441,000 BTC—a sharp decline from previous highs.
Source: Cryptoquant
If market momentum continues to decline, the likelihood of a sustained rally remains slim. For a rally to occur with full force, both volume and price must rise simultaneously.
A divergence between the two would indicate weak momentum, making a rally unlikely.
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